Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 04 2020 | 4316 | 31442 | 148 | 28 | 1174 | 1533 |
| November 05 2020 | 4556 | 31717 | 151 | 28 | 1236 | 1706 |
| November 06 2020 | 4716 | 32083 | 151 | 30 | 1274 | 1775 |
| November 07 2020 | 4897 | 32325 | 157 | 31 | 1366 | 1840 |
| November 08 2020 | 5036 | 32453 | 159 | 31 | 1380 | 1894 |
| November 09 2020 | 5131 | 32627 | 162 | 31 | 1393 | 1811 |
| November 10 2020 | 5223 | 32829 | 166 | 35 | 1378 | 1781 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 4.9 | 3.5% | 48 | 0.42% | 68 | 0.59% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 21.1 | 13.6% | 187 | 1.37% | 251 | 1.85% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 31.4 | 22.1% | 305 | 1.46% | 379 | 1.81% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 24.3 | 17.6% | 242 | 1.78% | 312 | 2.29% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 19.1 | 13.1% | 181 | 1.73% | 222 | 2.12% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 18.0 | 12.8% | 176 | 1.4% | 230 | 1.83% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 11.0 | 7.8% | 107 | 0.93% | 144 | 1.25% |
| 70+ | 9 | 12.7 | 9.6% | 132 | 1.26% | 175 | 1.67% |
| All ages | 92 | 142.6 | 100% | 1378 | 1.32% | 1781 | 1.7% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 04 2020 | 2260 | 19647 | 76 | 24 | 863 | 1045 |
| November 05 2020 | 2434 | 19779 | 79 | 26 | 901 | 1155 |
| November 06 2020 | 2604 | 19974 | 82 | 26 | 1023 | 1286 |
| November 07 2020 | 2713 | 20102 | 83 | 29 | 1028 | 1316 |
| November 08 2020 | 2753 | 20170 | 84 | 29 | 964 | 1356 |
| November 09 2020 | 2800 | 20309 | 84 | 31 | 935 | 1267 |
| November 10 2020 | 2984 | 20425 | 85 | 31 | 1045 | 1403 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 4.0 | 2.8% | 29 | 0.37% | 44 | 0.57% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 7.9 | 6.6% | 69 | 0.82% | 107 | 1.27% |
| 20-29 | 33 | 18.9 | 14.9% | 156 | 2.19% | 200 | 2.81% |
| 30-39 | 50 | 25.1 | 21% | 219 | 2.61% | 273 | 3.25% |
| 40-49 | 35 | 23.1 | 19% | 199 | 2.56% | 258 | 3.33% |
| 50-59 | 20 | 19.9 | 16% | 167 | 1.72% | 231 | 2.38% |
| 60-69 | 26 | 16.7 | 13.2% | 138 | 1.64% | 183 | 2.18% |
| 70+ | 5 | 6.7 | 6.5% | 68 | 0.96% | 107 | 1.5% |
| All ages | 184 | 122.3 | 100% | 1045 | 1.62% | 1403 | 2.17% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 04 2020 | 1494 | 12789 | 64 | 8 | 478 | 636 |
| November 05 2020 | 1586 | 12839 | 65 | 8 | 524 | 691 |
| November 06 2020 | 1685 | 13006 | 67 | 11 | 592 | 754 |
| November 07 2020 | 1797 | 13074 | 70 | 11 | 665 | 827 |
| November 08 2020 | 1861 | 13159 | 70 | 11 | 683 | 845 |
| November 09 2020 | 1919 | 13205 | 71 | 11 | 696 | 857 |
| November 10 2020 | 1991 | 13246 | 76 | 14 | 710 | 898 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.7 | 4.2% | 30 | 0.55% | 37 | 0.68% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 8.7 | 11% | 78 | 1.44% | 99 | 1.82% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 12.9 | 14.8% | 105 | 2.32% | 132 | 2.92% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 12.1 | 14.2% | 101 | 1.86% | 131 | 2.41% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 12.6 | 15.9% | 113 | 2.27% | 137 | 2.75% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 12.9 | 15.2% | 108 | 1.59% | 139 | 2.05% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 9.6 | 11.8% | 84 | 1.33% | 109 | 1.72% |
| 70+ | 20 | 8.6 | 12.8% | 91 | 1.44% | 114 | 1.8% |
| All ages | 72 | 81.0 | 100% | 710 | 1.57% | 898 | 1.98% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 04 2020 | 4910 | 34026 | 99 | 23 | 827 | 1003 |
| November 05 2020 | 5035 | 34278 | 101 | 26 | 932 | 1074 |
| November 06 2020 | 5174 | 34708 | 101 | 26 | 987 | 1190 |
| November 07 2020 | 5391 | 34865 | 103 | 26 | 1135 | 1366 |
| November 08 2020 | 5469 | 35062 | 103 | 26 | 1103 | 1386 |
| November 09 2020 | 5535 | 35190 | 104 | 26 | 1062 | 1432 |
| November 10 2020 | 5626 | 35482 | 105 | 27 | 1076 | 1439 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.1 | 2.5% | 27 | 0.23% | 30 | 0.25% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 14.6 | 11.2% | 120 | 0.72% | 165 | 1% |
| 20-29 | 21 | 26.4 | 20.5% | 221 | 1.04% | 309 | 1.45% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 17.7 | 14.2% | 153 | 1.13% | 194 | 1.43% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 16.3 | 13.6% | 146 | 1.07% | 210 | 1.54% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 20.0 | 16.6% | 179 | 1.26% | 238 | 1.68% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 16.4 | 12.6% | 136 | 0.96% | 172 | 1.21% |
| 70+ | 14 | 12.0 | 8.7% | 94 | 0.72% | 121 | 0.93% |
| All ages | 91 | 126.6 | 100% | 1076 | 0.91% | 1439 | 1.22% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 04 2020 | 16963 | 246093 | 564 | 51 | 2837 | 3842 |
| November 05 2020 | 17295 | 246986 | 572 | 50 | 2990 | 3980 |
| November 06 2020 | 17807 | 248063 | 590 | 53 | 3247 | 4252 |
| November 07 2020 | 18274 | 249427 | 596 | 55 | 3345 | 4443 |
| November 08 2020 | 18523 | 250330 | 602 | 55 | 3370 | 4397 |
| November 09 2020 | 18797 | 251218 | 604 | 55 | 3276 | 4492 |
| November 10 2020 | 19494 | 252703 | 625 | 56 | 3655 | 4934 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 43 | 24.0 | 5.9% | 215 | 0.36% | 289 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 86 | 61.3 | 14.9% | 546 | 0.77% | 730 | 1.03% |
| 20-29 | 170 | 95.4 | 24.2% | 883 | 0.85% | 1209 | 1.16% |
| 30-39 | 137 | 65.1 | 16.3% | 596 | 0.78% | 787 | 1.03% |
| 40-49 | 82 | 51.9 | 13.7% | 501 | 0.76% | 662 | 1.01% |
| 50-59 | 77 | 40.7 | 10.8% | 396 | 0.6% | 558 | 0.85% |
| 60-69 | 51 | 25.0 | 6.9% | 254 | 0.46% | 344 | 0.63% |
| 70+ | 51 | 26.0 | 7.2% | 264 | 0.54% | 355 | 0.72% |
| All ages | 697 | 389.4 | 100% | 3655 | 0.67% | 4934 | 0.9% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 04 2020 | 244002 | 1872295 | 12087 | 2156 | 45836 | 61315 |
| November 05 2020 | 249924 | 1881813 | 12310 | 2194 | 48875 | 63824 |
| November 06 2020 | 256065 | 1896457 | 12554 | 2256 | 49754 | 65587 |
| November 07 2020 | 263130 | 1908320 | 12727 | 2301 | 53004 | 68590 |
| November 08 2020 | 267410 | 1916801 | 12839 | 2312 | 52414 | 69244 |
| November 09 2020 | 271770 | 1926518 | 12939 | 2329 | 51678 | 70721 |
| November 10 2020 | 278843 | 1939444 | 13230 | 2395 | 53473 | 72532 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 259 | 228.9 | 3.9% | 2086 | 0.33% | 2767 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 744 | 650.9 | 11.1% | 5942 | 0.79% | 7931 | 1.05% |
| 20-29 | 1328 | 1056.6 | 18% | 9650 | 1.27% | 12853 | 1.7% |
| 30-39 | 1107 | 913.7 | 15.8% | 8461 | 1.12% | 11473 | 1.52% |
| 40-49 | 948 | 850.1 | 14.6% | 7818 | 1.12% | 10628 | 1.52% |
| 50-59 | 1101 | 907.9 | 15.5% | 8312 | 1.02% | 11439 | 1.4% |
| 60-69 | 829 | 653.0 | 11.1% | 5920 | 0.78% | 8197 | 1.08% |
| 70+ | 757 | 564.1 | 9.9% | 5284 | 0.83% | 7244 | 1.13% |
| All ages | 7073 | 5825.1 | 100% | 53473 | 0.92% | 72532 | 1.25% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 170.2 | 184.5 | 181.1 | 142.6 | 113.9 | 38.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 217 | 122.3 | 78.1 | 48.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 198.5 | 81 | 41.7 | 49% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 121.7 | 99.7 | 145.2 | 126.6 | 69.9 | 33.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90.3 | 102.7 | 116.4 | 389.4 | 280.9 | 26.1% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124.6 | 104.8 | 169.8 | 5825.1 | 4230.6 | 34.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 9.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.44 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-01 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2361"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges